Posted by
Reeson on Monday, December 17, 2007 8:27:16 AM
By Greg C. Reeson
Over the weekend, I read a report that the U.S. military had lost 10 troops in Iraq during December, a pace that, if sustained, would make this month the least deadly in four years. Troop deaths this month are less than half of what the monthly total was in November after the mid-month point.
Of course, this is great news, but it is also a little bit surprising. After the last of the surge troops arrived in Iraq in June, American and Iraqi forces began a series of major offensive operations designed to protect the population and bring both insurgent attacks and sectarian fighting under control. Normally, when military forces are conducting offensive strikes, taking the fight to the enemy, casualty rates go up because the troops are actively looking to engage opposing forces. But both U.S. and Iraqi casualty levels continue to drop, a clear indicator of just how amazingly successful the surge strategy has been.
Everyone is speculating about how long the gains will last, given that the U.S. military is stretched pretty thin right now and that surge troops will have to start coming home before too long. I suspect we will continue to see improving conditions throughout 2008, for a couple of reasons. First, surge troops arrived in increments, from February 2007 through June 2007. If these units remain deployed for the standard 15-month tour, redeployments will be spread out from May 2008 through September 2008, accounting for three quarters of the year with increased troop levels and gradually drawing down the U.S. presence while continuing to train and implement Iraqi forces.
Second, there is a significant amount of behind-the-scenes negotiation going on between the United States and Iran. When things were looking bad for U.S. forces at the end of 2006, the Iranians expected us to start looking for a way out of Iraq. Instead, the President caught them off guard by increasing our troop presence, making the mullahs in Tehran more than a little bit nervous about the prospect of a long-term U.S. presence on their border. Now, uncertain about what the United States will do, Iran is making its way to the bargaining table to discuss its nuclear program and the future of Iraq.
Diplomatic negotiations are complicated and take time. Bargaining with Iran will likely take the better part of next year, and although there will be spikes in violence and no shortage of casualties, the quest for a long-term solution will keep the fighting at a level that can be managed by the U.S., Iran, and the Iraqi government. That means that U.S. casualties, already at historic lows for a prolonged conflict, should continue to be less than they have been for the past three years.