Posted by
Reeson on Monday, June 02, 2008 9:38:29 AM
After receiving a considerable amount of grief from John McCain and the Republican National Committee, Barack Obama has decided to consider visiting Iraq this summer. The last time Obama traveled to the war zone to meet with our troops was about two years ago. This is an important point, to be sure. It is hard to fathom that a leading contender for the presidency has not made even semi-regular visits to observe first-hand what is generally considered to be the United States’ top foreign policy challenge. But what is most troubling is that Obama appears to be nonchalant about the matter, acting as though knowledge of the realities on the ground in Iraq is just not that important.
I imagine Obama will meet with a tough crowd if he does indeed decide to visit our soldiers and commanders in Iraq. After all, it is doubtful that many will agree with the idea of leaving a job half-finished or making military decisions based on arbitrary dates or troop withdrawal rates (one to two brigades per month according to the Obama plan) without regard for the tactical situation or the potential consequences involved. Of course, it is possible that Obama will have a change of heart if he goes to Iraq with open eyes and an open mind. The last time he was there, sectarian violence was spinning out of control and al Qaeda fighters were unleashing horrific attacks that that threatened to plunge the country into all-out civil war. Since then, however, the situation has become strikingly different. According to the Institute for the Study of War, as of May 2008 the following had occurred:
*Overall attacks dropped more than 50% between December 2006 and December 2007.
*IED explosions dropped from more than 1,500 per month in December 2006 to about 700 per month in December 2007.
*High profile attacks (car bombs, suicide vests, etc.) dropped form about 80 in December 2006 to about 50 in November 2007.
*Indirect fire attacks (rockets, mortars, etc.) dropped from just over 800 in December 2006 to less than 400 in October 2007.
*Attacks in Anbar Province, once considered lost by a Marine intelligence officer, dropped from around 1100 in December 2006 to just over 200 in August 2007.
*Civilian deaths dropped from more than 3,500 in December 2006 to around 700 in February 2008.
*Ethno-sectarian deaths dropped from about 1,600 in December 2006 to about 100 in February 2008.
All of this is good news, of course, but perhaps the most striking statistic is this one: the number of weapons caches found by coalition and Iraqi forces increased from about 80 in December 2006 to more than 200 in February 2008. What’s important about this statistic is that it reflects a population that feels safe and secure enough to provide coalition and Iraqi forces with the intelligence required to find hidden weapons and get them of the streets. Locals don’t come forward with information when they are terrified of being killed by insurgents. They come forward when they have confidence in the ability of security forces to protect them.
What I have learned over the years is that there is no substitute for first-hand knowledge. As a battalion operations officer in Iraq several years ago, I was responsible for the force protection plan for our forward operating base in a nasty little spot between Fallujah and Ramadi. I took my responsibility seriously, and walked the ground around our perimeter, carefully looking at the terrain’s features before deciding on the best locations for our guard towers and fighting positions. When another unit came to take over our FOB, my counterpart laid a map on the table in front of me and pointed out where he intended make changes to the force protection plan. I was confused about his plans and questioned his reasoning. His ideas, it turned out, were based on his assessment of the terrain as indicated on a map of the area. He did not take the time to personally examine the perimeter or the terrain, and his plan reflected his lack of first-hand knowledge.
So, will Obama go to Iraq and then acknowledge, based on first-hand experience that the security situation has indeed gotten better, and that hasty calls for withdrawal without regard to consequences or gains made may be premature? I doubt it. Senator Obama’s own statements are indicative of a man who seemingly does not place much value on first-hand experience and knowledge. While traveling on Wednesday, Obama told reporters, according to the Associated Press, that his lack of visits to Iraq were “not relevant.”