Posted by
Reeson on Tuesday, September 30, 2008 10:41:21 AM
Writing for Real Clear Politics, Jay Cost examines the current state of the race for the Presidency between Senators Barack Obama and John McCain.
In his analysis, Cost looks at the effect of the recent financial crisis on each candidate’s poll numbers. The data presented show a clear decline for McCain coupled with a corresponding rise for Obama since the current mess began to come to light.
From the seizing of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the federal government to the first White House meeting on a way forward, McCain has dropped more than 3 points in the Real Clear Politics average of polls while Obama has risen more than 2 points. Using Cost’s numbers, Obama polled at 47.9 percent while McCain came in at 43.3 percent.
Prior to the crisis, the race was essentially a dead heat, with McCain reducing his deficit in the polls following his selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate and the close of the Republican National Convention. “Currently,” Cost says, “the race stands roughly where it did in June, though McCain is in a slightly better position.”
What should be most troubling for McCain supporters, though, is not the Real Clear Politics national average. In presidential elections, national polls mean little except as an indicator of the larger mood of the country. The swing toward Obama in the national polling average is not nearly as important as the swing toward Obama in key battleground states. Some states will always vote Republican, and some states will always vote Democrat. But it is the battleground states that will determine the election. And that is where McCain is showing signs of distress. While some battleground states are firming up their positions, others, like Virginia, Florida and Ohio, are very close and within the polling margin of error. There has been a trend toward Obama in the battleground states, but it is unclear at this point if that trend will continue.
Some additional notes made by Cost: 1) the number of undecided voters has increased in the last three weeks from 6.3 percent to 8.8 percent; 2) the polls have been very volatile over the past month; and 3) there is a large portion of the electorate that says it makes up its mind right before the election. These three notes, Cost says, “…indicate that caution is required in projecting the state of the race forward. There seems to be a lot of uncertainty out there.”
Reinforcing his claim of uncertainty, Cost says, “The events of the last 20 days could be the break Obama and his supporters have been waiting for – something that induces the remaining undecideds to abandon the status quo and embrace ‘Change That Works For You.’ But it might also be the case that this is just another turn on a very windy road – something that, like the trip to Europe, loses much of its effect after it drops from the news.”
What is becoming apparent is that McCain needs something to happen to change public perception about the state of the economy. Right or wrong, the public is blaming Bush and Republicans in general, and McCain is the candidate of those being blamed. Barring a turnaround in perception, it could be a long 5 weeks for McCain.