Posted by
Reeson on Thursday, May 14, 2009 8:29:40 PM
By Greg C. Reeson
Reuters published a short analysis May 14 outlining potential scenarios that could unfold as Pakistan continues to wage war against Taliban and other Islamic radicals within its borders. While Reuters focuses on potential market effects, the real issue here is the survival of the Pakistani state. Each of the scenarios is presented below in bold type, along with personal commentary.
Scenario #1: A weak Pakistani government struggles to push back the Taliban. In this scenario Reuters hypothesizes that the current situation, which is characterized by an unpopular and divided government capable of general containment of the terrorist threat but incapable of defeating that threat, would remain unchanged for the foreseeable future. I suspect this is probably the most likely scenario. Pakistan is currently not willing or able to fully take on the threat posed by the various terrorist elements opposed to the government. However, it is doubtful that the Pakistani military would allow the Pakistani state to fail and fall into the hands of radical Islamists. The Zardari government may not survive, but the armed forces will ensure the survival of the state.
Scenario #2: A military offensive deals a significant blow to the Taliban. This scenario is highly unlikely to unfold. The Pakistani military has two major problems: focus and capability. The Pakistani military still views India as a greater threat than the Taliban and other Islamist groups. The primary focus of Pakistani military strategy remains India and the bulk of Pakistan’s forces remain oriented away from the terrorist threat and toward India. In accordance with Pakistani strategic assessments that give India a higher priority than the Taliban and other terrorist groups, Pakistan’s military forces are structured, equipped and trained for war with India and not for counterinsurgency or counterterrorist operations. Given strategic priorities and capability realities, it is doubtful that the Pakistani military would do significant damage to the Taliban and other Pakistani terrorist groups.
Scenario #3: The Taliban makes dramatic territorial gains. This scenario is also unlikely to develop. The Taliban know the dangers involved in overreaching. A weak government, a friendly state intelligence service, and a Pakistani army preoccupied with India allow Taliban elements to build public support over time and through incremental territorial gains by providing needed social services and law and order in regions plagued by chaos and violence.
Scenario #4: The Pakistani military takes power. A military coup is a very real possibility, one that I’ve written about before. It is unlikely that the military would step in to run the country if the Pakistani government maintained some semblance of control. If the survival of the state itself is threatened, however, it is well within the realm of possibilities that the world could see yet another military coup in Islamabad.
Scenario #5: A stronger Pakistani government emerges. This is an interesting scenario and one that poses a dilemma for the United States. Pakistani president Zardari does not enjoy public support, but his main opposition, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, does. The problem with Sharif is that he has questionable ties to radical Islamist elements. Sharif could conceivably put together a stronger government that the one headed by Zardari, but does the United States stick with its current ally, or switch its support to the popular guy with questionable associations?
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/SP221916.htm